Poland Held Interest Rates in September 2026: The Cut Is Off the Table

What the Council decided on 9 September 2026

Poland's official interest rates are set by the Monetary Policy Council (Rada Polityki Pienieznej, or RPP), the rate-setting body of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). At its two-day meeting on 8-9 September 2026 the Council left all rates unchanged: the reference rate stays at 3.75%, the lombard rate at 4.25% and the deposit rate at 3.25%. These levels have applied since 5 March 2026, when the Council delivered its only cut of the year, and September was the fifth consecutive hold (after April, May, June and July; the August session was non-decisional).

In its communique the Council described wage and inflation pressure as moderate, but found no case for easing. The decision surprised nobody: all 16 institutions polled by PAP Biznes ahead of the meeting expected a hold.

Why the cut died: 3.4% instead of the expected 2.7%

In early August a September cut to 3.50% looked genuinely likely: Credit Agricole and ING both forecast it, and governor Adam Glapinski had said after the July meeting that he might file a cut motion himself. One data release changed everything. The August flash CPI estimate, published by the statistics office GUS on 1 September, showed inflation at 3.4% year on year against 2.7% expected by economists.

The surprise had three layers. First, 3.4% is almost at the ceiling of the NBP tolerance band (2.5% plus or minus 1 point, so 3.5%). Second, core inflation surprised to the upside as well, a sign that the earlier energy shock is no longer confined to fuel and energy but is feeding into underlying prices. Third, the 0.7 point miss versus consensus was large enough that by decision day the market was unanimous about a hold.

The narrative flip: from "when is the cut" to "could they hike"

The reversal in expectations is textbook. Credit Agricole, which had the September cut in its base case, now points to a possible 25 basis point hike to 4.00% in the fourth quarter of 2026 if inflation pressure persists. ING has pushed the room for cuts out to mid-2027. A hike, absent from serious forecasts all summer, is back in circulation.

The money market repriced immediately. The WIBOR curve, flat around 3.83-3.85% for most of the year, now slopes gently upward: WIBOR 1M at 3.80%, 3M at 3.84%, 6M at 3.86% and 1Y at 3.87% (fixings of 9 September, GPW Benchmark data). An upward-sloping curve means the market prices no quick cut and keeps some room for the hawkish scenario in longer tenors.

What it means for your money in Poland

If you hold a variable-rate zloty mortgage, nothing changes short term: WIBOR moved by a single basis point, so your installment stays where it is at the next reset date. What changes is the outlook. In the summer you could reasonably expect installments to start falling around the turn of 2026 and 2027; the base case now is a longer plateau, with the risk tilted toward a rise if the Council actually hikes in Q4. If you are choosing between fixed and variable pricing on a new loan, note that the case for variable rested on expected cuts that are no longer on the horizon. You can model scenarios with our financial calculators or compare offers in the mortgage ranking.

For savers the September outcome is the best realistic result. Held rates and postponed cuts mean banks face no pressure to trim deposit pricing, so the current promotional offers (around 6% on short deposits for new clients) should survive longer than summer forecasts implied. Comparing term deposits and savings accounts still pays, and our guide to short-term savings in Poland walks through the options. Interest earned in Poland remains subject to the Belka tax either way.

One more thing worth knowing as a foreigner: all of this concerns zloty products. Balances in euro or dollars follow other central banks. The Polish calendar from here: the final August CPI reading around 15 September, the flash September estimate at the start of October, and the next RPP decision on 6-7 October 2026.