Will Poland Cut Interest Rates in September 2026?

Where Polish interest rates stand in August 2026

Poland's official interest rates are set by the Monetary Policy Council (Rada Polityki Pienieznej, or RPP), the rate-setting body of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The key policy rate, called the reference rate, has stood at 3.75% since 5 March 2026, when the Council delivered its last cut of 25 basis points. The lombard rate is 4.25% and the deposit rate 3.25%. At its meeting on 7-8 July 2026 the Council left all rates unchanged.

For anyone with a zloty loan, the number that matters more day to day is WIBOR, the interbank benchmark that Polish banks use to price most variable-rate PLN loans, including mortgages. As of the 5 August 2026 fixing (GPW Benchmark data), WIBOR 3M stood at 3.83%, WIBOR 1M at 3.80%, WIBOR 6M at 3.84% and WIBOR 1Y at 3.85%.

WIBOR sits just above the reference rate. Whatever the Council decides in September will feed through these benchmarks into loan installments and deposit pricing.

Why 1-2 September is the date to watch

The RPP calendar leaves no room for surprises in August. The meeting scheduled for 25 August 2026 is a one-day, non-decision session, so rates cannot change before September. The first decision meeting after the summer break falls on 1-2 September 2026, with the outcome announced on the second day. After that, three decision meetings remain in 2026: 6-7 October, 3-4 November and 1-2 December.

September matters because of what NBP governor Adam Glapinski said at his press conference on 9 July 2026: "I do not rule out filing a motion to cut rates after the holidays, but I do not know how it will be received." He added that he may be the only Council member who sees room for a cut this year, describing his colleagues as "cautious doves".

A motion is not a decision. The governor holds one vote on the Council, so his announcement signals a debate, not an outcome. That is exactly why the September meeting is the most watched Polish monetary policy event of the autumn.

The inflation problem: July CPI jumped to 3.0%

June looked like a textbook setup for cutting. The final reading showed CPI inflation at 2.5% year on year, exactly at the NBP target, with services prices up 5.4%, goods up just 1.3%, and prices falling 0.5% month on month. Then July complicated the picture: the flash estimate published by the statistics office GUS on 31 July showed inflation jumping to 3.0% year on year, with prices up 0.8% on the month.

The culprit was fuel. Fuel prices rose 13.9% month on month and 15.8% year on year, making them the main driver of the July jump. The monthly increase of 0.8% was in line with economists' forecasts, and 3.0% still sits inside the NBP tolerance band of 2.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point. Even so, a headline number moving away from target is an awkward backdrop for a rate cut.

The central bank's own July projection already assumes higher inflation. The NECMOD model now puts the central inflation path for 2026 at 2.9%, up from 2.3% in the March projection, with a 50 percent probability band of 2.4-3.3%. For 2027 the central path is 2.7% and for 2028 it is 2.2%. GDP is projected to grow 3.0-4.4% in 2026. Glapinski said in July that NBP does not assume CPI will exceed 3.5% in the coming months, and some analysts argue that even a brief breach of 3.5% would not change a Council that leans closer to cuts than hikes.

There may also be relief on the way at the pump. Puls Biznesu reported on 6 August 2026 that wholesale fuel prices are falling and that government officials have declared readiness to cut VAT on fuels if retail petrol and diesel prices rise. This is a declared readiness, not a bill or binding law. If August inflation comes in low, the discussion about starting cuts after the holidays returns in full force.

What analysts and Council insiders expect

Forecasters are split, but the cut camp is vocal. Credit Agricole forecasts a 25 basis point reduction of the reference rate to 3.50% in September 2026 and, in its August report, calls that the target level of the cycle. Economists at ING Bank Slaski describe a September cut as nearly a done deal, but warn that further cuts will take longer, pointing to the high 2026 fiscal deficit and to RPP members saying they are not in a cutting cycle.

Inside the Council, the tone is careful. Gabriela Maslowska, an RPP member, told PAP Biznes that it can be said with high confidence it would be no more than one cut, unless the situation changes. She expects a cautiously dovish Council to lean toward cuts after the holidays or at the latest in the first half of 2027, sees CPI staying within the 2.5% plus or minus 1 point band for the next two years, and notes that wage growth in April and May was the lowest in several years.

The outcome is genuinely open. The key data point before the meeting is the GUS flash CPI estimate for August, due around the turn of August and September, together with the direction of fuel prices. A low August reading supports a cut to 3.50%; another upside surprise could keep the Council on hold at 3.75%.

What it means for your money in Poland

If you hold a variable-rate zloty mortgage, your installment is priced off WIBOR plus your bank's margin. A cut to 3.50% would pull WIBOR benchmarks down from today's 3.80-3.85% range, and your payment would follow at the next rate-reset date in your loan schedule. You can model the effect on your installment with our financial calculators or compare current offers in the mortgage ranking.

For savers the logic runs in reverse. Deposit and savings rates follow the policy rate, and banks often reprice ahead of a widely expected cut. If you keep an emergency fund or medium-term savings in zloty, comparing term deposits now, rather than after a September decision, protects the rate you lock in. Our guide to short-term savings in Poland walks through the options. Remember that interest earned in Poland is subject to the Belka tax, the Polish tax on capital income, whichever way the Council votes.

One more thing worth knowing as a foreigner: all of this concerns zloty products. Balances you hold in euro or dollars are priced off other central banks' decisions, so a Polish cut changes nothing there. And nothing changes anywhere before 2 September: rates stay at 3.75%, WIBOR stays near 3.83%, and the August inflation print is the number to watch.